Made on
Tilda
You underwrote the case.
Other people will decide how it ends.
Counsel gave you the merits opinion, the experts built the damages model, you ran duration, budget and collectability. It all penciled. But you make one decision today — and for the next four years the decisions get made by somebody else.
Is the guy across the table overselling his case — or does he know something about it he didn't tell you?
Standard underwriting can't tell those two apart. We can. Either one can cost you the tranche, and the right move is different for each.
We don't forecast people.
We forecast where the case goes.
You make one decision today — fund it. Over the next four years, dozens of decisions get made by other people: the claimant, the key witness, lead counsel, the co-plaintiffs, the defendant. Every one of them can move the value of your position. We price those decisions before they get made.
Not character. Not personality. Not a diagnosis.
The probability of specific events:
We don't know the future.
We price which decisions become most likely if the system of people, incentives and pressure holds the way it is today. That's not a promise of precision. It's a tool for managing uncertainty.
Cases don't turn on hearing dates.
They turn at the points that never make the docket.
ID SYSTEM™ prices the odds at each of these turns long before you get to them.
The picture of the case is almost always built
out of material prepared by the side that wants the money.
You run your own diligence, you hire independent experts, you pull public filings, you get discovery. And the source material still comes from the same place the funding request did — the theory, the chronology, the damages assumptions, the witness list.
Every check looks where he's willing to let you in. We also look where his permission isn't required.
You can't prep for it and you can't rewrite it after the fact. That's where the answer is.
Our model comes at it from 14 independent directions. What he built for one check doesn't survive the other thirteen. Each showpiece can be explained on its own. All of them at once — cannot. It's a mechanism.
Your IC decides on the file.
We add the layer that isn't in the file.
Nobody is pricing how the people in this case behave — none of the standard checks are built for it. And there's one more person nobody is looking at.
The one inside your shop who already decided on this case.
He's six months in, he's walked it past the partners, his name is on it. By the time it goes to committee he isn't analyzing anymore — he's defending. That isn't a character flaw. It's how anyone behaves under that kind of pressure, and it exists in every shop.
An independent layer means the committee gets a read that doesn't depend on the applicant — or on whoever inside the fund owns this deal.
A verdict — and the report that backs it.
Most reports end with a verdict.
Ours starts with one.
The terms that need to be in the funding agreement for the human risk to be manageable: settlement consent rights, approval thresholds, exit triggers. What to require before the first tranche, in what order to move, and the point where you stop.
Not a verdict. A map for the decision.
Standard underwriting prices the case at entry.
ID SYSTEM™ prices the decisions that haven't been made yet —
but are already taking shape.
The future is rarely a surprise. It starts long before it becomes a fact. That's the moment we're looking for. And for a while, it can still be changed — we show you the point where that stops being true.
One bad call costs more than
an independent read on the entire portfolio.
Your capital goes out non-recourse — you know that better than I do. The question is what it's worth to find out in two weeks what otherwise shows up in year four.
If the tranche goes out in the next few weeks —
this conversation can't wait.
Before the first tranche you have a choice. After, you only have consequences.
Request Confidential Assessment